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One last matchup, one last game plan for victory. And this is the big one. On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will battle in Super Bowl LV. How can each team win the final game of the 2020 NFL season and hoist the Lombardi trophy? How can offensive and defensive coordinators or playcallers on each team exploit matchups? And which players and schemes could have the biggest impact on who does end up champion?
Let's take a closer look at the Super Bowl matchup and pick out game-plan keys -- three for each team -- that can create edges and a path to victory. Plus, we identify game-breakers for both the Buccaneers and Chiefs and answer some lingering questions that each coaching staff will be considering leading up to the game.
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Game-breakers Big questions
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How the Buccaneers can beat the Chiefs
1. Isolate pass-rush matchups
Including the playoffs, the Bucs have registered a blitz rate of 38.6% under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles this season. He will heat you up. But in the Week 12 head-to-head matchup with the Chiefs, that blitz rate dropped to 24.1%. Yes, Bowles will send situational sim pressures at Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes on Sunday night, disguising a second-level blitzer while dropping a defensive end into coverage. I anticipate seeing those on third-and-medium situations. But also look for a game plan that leans more on split-safety coverages, with a twitched-up Bucs defensive line going against a depleted Chiefs offensive front.
The goal here is to squeeze the pocket, and we saw examples of that in the Bucs' NFC Championship Game win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Bowles isolated edge rushers Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett with defensive tackles Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh occupying interior blockers. Tampa Bay sacked Rodgers five times in that game, winning the one-on-ones outside and muddying the pocket with twist stunts.
Tampa Bay has to take away Mahomes' ability to climb or eject from the pocket by putting Pierre-Paul and Barrett in favorable edge matchups that cater to their speed, power and bend. Getting home to the quarterback while playing Quarters, Cover 2 and 2-Man in the secondary will limit the vertical ability of this Kansas City passing game.
2. Scheme throws for quarterback Tom Brady against the Chiefs' two-deep coverages
In addition to the blitz schemes that Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will throw at Brady on Sunday night, we know Kansas City will utilize late movement and disguise to get to their two-deep shells. In that Week 12 win over Tampa Bay, the Chiefs played Cover 2 on 21.4% of coverage snaps and 2-Man (two-deep, man-under) on 19.6% of snaps. And with the secondary spinning post-snap, the Chiefs will drop safety Tyrann Mathieu down as a 'robber' defender in dime personnel and cloud the look for Brady with the safeties rolling late to get to their two-deep landmarks.
For Tampa, this is about creating leveled reads for Brady in the middle of the field -- he has registered a QBR of 83.3 on throws inside of the numbers this season (including the playoffs). He has to hit the seam balls to tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, and drive schemed in-breakers to wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
If the Buccaneers can occupy the zone defenders to create second-level windows, where Brady can throw with both anticipation and location, then they can find some success here. And when the Chiefs spin to 2-Man, the Bucs must remove those deep-half safeties to create inside one-on-ones, as shown here.
3. Have answers for WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce in the Chiefs' 3x1 sets
Hill shredded the Bucs' secondary in the regular-season matchup, catching 13 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns. Vertical throws created matchup advantages for Hill against Bucs cornerback Carlton Davis in single-high schemes. But Hill isn't the only problem for Tampa Bay. Kelce -- who caught eight passes for 82 yards against Tampa Bay -- is the key to making this Kansas City passing game work. So what's the answer here for Bowles, especially when the Chiefs get to their staple 3x1 set with Kelce aligned as the boundary X receiver?
With an expectation that Bowles shows more split-safety coverage on Sunday to limit Mahomes' ability to attack vertically, I would look for the Bucs to play Quarters 'lock,' which we saw in the second half of that Week 12 game. This allows Tampa to man up against Kelce on the backside, while using that boundary safety to push to the trips side of the field. That's how you squeeze Hill over the top and play the deep-over route, with a defender now matched to Kelce on the isolated in-breaker, curl, comeback or whatever.
The Bucs could use Sean Murphy-Bunting or Jamel Dean here as the matchup against Kelce, but I actually like Davis in that role because of his length and physical traits.
How the Chiefs can beat the Buccaneers
1. Define throws for Mahomes vs. split-safety coverage
Mahomes is going to move outside of the pocket on Sunday night. Off-schedule throws from multiple platforms highlight his second-reaction ability. We know it's coming. And so do the Bucs. But coach Andy Reid can also create defined throws for Mahomes within the structure of the Chiefs' offense that open up coverage voids in the Bucs' Quarters and Cover 2 zone schemes.
Using their track speed at wide receiver, the Chiefs can lift the top of the secondary when Tampa Bay is in Quarters. Against Cover 2, they can set the bait for the flat defender with Hill pressing down the boundary. And when the Chiefs get into the strike zone -- let's say between the 20- and 35-yard lines in scoring territory -- you'll see the double-post concept.
These are heavily schemed throws for Mahomes that play to the matchup, manipulating the coverage and generating open windows to create explosive plays in the passing game. Remember, Mahomes threw for 462 yards in the Week 12 win over the Buccaneers, with the Chiefs hitting seven explosive plays for 20 or more yards in the passing game.
2. Heat up Brady with slot pressure
In the Week 12 game, the Chiefs registered a blitz rate of 47.6% -- a jump from their season average of 36.0% -- and Brady posted a QBR of just 44.4 with two interceptions against the blitz. We saw zero-man pressure, with Spagnuolo sending the house, as well as zone schemes and multiple fronts.
But this time around, I'm looking at rookie cornerback L'Jarius Sneed off disguised pressures from the slot. Given the Chiefs' ability to confuse protection counts, Spagnuolo can heat Brady up with just five rushers while playing pattern match coverage in the back end. Sneed, who has a sack in each of the Chiefs' playoff wins, can stem late to a blitz alignment.
Playing a Quarters technique over the top, two defenders can drop out of the front and create a free run for Sneed to get home. And with Spagnuolo's multiple pressure calls, the Chiefs can get after Brady with second- and third-level blitzers.
3. Scheme against Tampa Bay's second-level speed with run-pass options
The Chiefs will have to account for Tampa Bay linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David in the running game Sunday. The second-level speed jumps there, with both White and David creating clean pursuit angles to cut off the ball against zone schemes. And that's why I think we will see Reid scheme more run-pass options (RPOs) off stretch/outside zone to let Mahomes read it.
To start, get 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers) on the field when the Bucs are in their staple 4-2 nickel front. From there, Mahomes can read the linebacker in the six-man box and either hand the ball off, hit Hill on quick glance routes for big after-the-catch opportunities or find Kelce on the arrow routes. It doesn't stop there, either. The Chiefs can attack vertically on RPOs with Hill on the wheel or fade.
Reid will scheme throws for Mahomes, but the RPO package can also create conflict for the Bucs' talented linebackers.
Game-breakers to watch
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
Evans will be a schemed target for Brady against the Chiefs' two-deep coverages. But don't forget about Evans as the primary read for the Bucs quarterback when the Chiefs send man pressure. Spagnuolo is going to dial up heat on Sunday, and that's when Brady can look for Evans on fade balls. It's a big advantage when you can throw the one-on-ones outside of the numbers to a wide receiver who can stack on press coverage and adjust to the ball with a wide catch radius.
Mecole Hardman, WR, Chiefs
Hardman can play a pivotal role as a return man for the Chiefs' special-teams unit. It's all about field position there, and he has open-field juice with the ball in his hands. Plus, look for the Chiefs to manufacture touches for Hardman on offense with fly sweeps, screens and more. Hardman displays explosive play ability when he can get loose on the edge off schemed concepts.
Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs
Jones has disruptive traits as an interior presence on the Chiefs' defensive front, and he's in a favorable matchup with the Tampa guards. With his power and length, the defensive tackle can push the pocket for Brady and get hands in passing lanes. Jones made critical plays in the Chiefs' Super Bowl win last season, and I believe he needs to do it again Sunday night for a repeat.
Antoine Winfield Jr., S, Buccaneers
Winfield, who missed the NFC Championship Game with an ankle injury, has to create on-the-ball production. Whether he is driving top-down on overs and crossers as a Quarters defender or closing the deep boundary window in Cover 2, the rookie safety will play a vital role in limiting Mahomes and the Chiefs' explosive play ability.
Big matchup questions
Will the running game be an important part of either team's game plan, and how can each get it going?
I see both squads using the running game as it fits to their offensive personnel. In Tampa, it's the DUO and zone schemes with Leonard Fournette, who has averaged 16 carries per game in the playoffs, and Ronald Jones II. Press the ball or find daylight to get north/south on cutback runs. And with the Chiefs, I expect rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams to see carries on inside zone, but keep an eye out for manufactured run-game touches for Hill and Hardman on fly/jet sweeps.
How can the Buccaneers use play-action to exploit the middle of the field?
They can do so with in-breakers out of 12 (one running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers) and 11 personnel. Brady can then hit the back foot off the play-fake and deliver the ball with timing and rhythm. Look for the Bucs to scheme the Chiefs' defense on double dig routes (square-ins), leveled high-to-low reads and vertical clears that open up pockets in coverage for Brady to anticipate second-level windows.
Mathieu will be all over the place in coverage, but can he also impact the game as a blitzer?
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Yes. Look for Spagnuolo to blitz Mathieu on schemed pressures that create one-on-one pass-rush situations against the Tampa Bay running backs in protection. Based on the tape, Mathieu has a matchup advantage here against both Fournette and Jones when they have to scan and pick up an extra rusher off the edge.
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How can Kansas City attack Tampa Bay in the red zone, and will Tampa have an answer?
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The Chiefs have the ability to stretch the Bucs horizontally with misdirection on touches for Hill and Hardman. And we will see pre-snap movement there to create hesitation at the second level of the Tampa defense. But don't forget about the Chiefs' sprint-out/dash concepts with Mahomes, along with the backside X iso routes to Kelce. For Tampa, I'm looking for Quarters coverage in the high red zone and possibly some simulated pressures, with Pierre-Paul dropping out to muddy the throwing windows for Mahomes.