Nfl Games Point Spread
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- Nfl Championship Games Point Spread
- Nfl Games Point Spreads Week 2
- Nfl Games Point Spread Vegas
- Nfl Games & Point Spreads This Week
- Nfl Games Point Spread
For those of you who aren’t familiar with betting the money line in the NFL it’s simple. You are essentially wagering on who you think will win the game. There’s no point spread involved. There is just an increase in the juice based on the percentage chances of a team winning outright.
For example, the money line on a 3-point home favorite in the NFL would have odds like -164 to win the game outright. This means you would need to wager $164 to win $100 on that team. On the flip side, you could bet a 3-point underdog at +135 to win outright, meaning you would wager $100 to win $135.
Nfl Championship Games Point Spread
What I’m interested in when looking at the weekly odds is whether certain moneyline bets are profitable. Each chart below shows two money lines. The first is the “expected moneyline”. We took the win percentages for all NFL games since 1980 at each line and converted them into a money line. The “actual moneyline” is what a typical sportsbook would set for each spread.
Why is this something you need to know? Home favorites of -3.5 win the game 63.61% of the time. If you look at the chart we’ve converted that to a money line of -175 (expected moneyline). The problem is a book would make you pay around -206 (actual moneyline) for a -3.5-point favorite. Thus, it’s obviously not a good bet.
The same goes for underdogs. Say you see a home underdog of +2 and decide you might as well take the money line. The actual line you would get would be something close to +105. The expected moneyline for 2-point home underdogs is +119. If the actual moneyline comes in lower than the expected moneyline then history says you are not getting value on your wager.
As you’ll see, it’s pretty rare to find instances where taking the money line is a valuable play. There are obviously significant differences between certain situations. So, I’ve broken the data into four groups: home favorites, road favorites, home underdogs and road underdogs.
*Please note that some higher lines did not have enough games to qualify as significant data. For those games we used estimated win percentages to better represent those numbers.
NFL Money Line Conversion Charts
Now for the road favorites…
Here are the road underdogs.
And finally….home underdogs.
Handicapping NFL games isn’t easy. But, hopefully this will give you another tool to use against the sportsbooks. If you consider converting the point spreads into expected moneylines on any given game you might find a couple more winners.
As with everything in gambling, the house almost always has the edge. This certainly doesn’t mean you have to avoid betting moneylines in the NFL, but check these charts to make sure you are maximizing the value of those wagers.
You’ll also notice that it’s better to do a two-team 6 point teaser on favorites of 6 or 7 points instead of doing a money line parlay. That’s just one of the reasons we love NFL teaser wagers so much.
Spreads Converted to Expected Win Percentage
The table below shows the expected wining percentage at each point spread for the favorite and underdog. This is the complete odds conversion table for the NFL.
| Point Spread | Favorite Win Chance | Underdog Win Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 0.5 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 1 | 51.30% | 48.80% |
| 1.5 | 52.50% | 47.50% |
| 2 | 53.50% | 46.50% |
| 2.5 | 54.50% | 45.50% |
| 3 | 59.40% | 40.60% |
| 3.5 | 64.30% | 35.70% |
| 4 | 65.80% | 34.20% |
| 4.5 | 67.30% | 32.70% |
| 5 | 68.10% | 31.90% |
| 5.5 | 69.00% | 31.10% |
| 6 | 70.70% | 29.40% |
| 6.5 | 72.40% | 27.70% |
| 7 | 75.20% | 24.80% |
| 7.5 | 78.10% | 21.90% |
| 8 | 79.10% | 20.90% |
| 8.5 | 80.20% | 19.80% |
| 9 | 80.70% | 19.30% |
| 9.5 | 81.10% | 18.90% |
| 10 | 83.60% | 16.40% |
| 10.5 | 86.00% | 14.00% |
| 11 | 87.10% | 12.90% |
| 11.5 | 88.20% | 11.80% |
| 12 | 88.50% | 11.60% |
| 12.5 | 88.70% | 11.30% |
| 13 | 89.30% | 10.70% |
| 13.5 | 90.00% | 10.00% |
| 14 | 92.40% | 7.60% |
| 14.5 | 94.90% | 5.10% |
| 15 | 95.60% | 4.40% |
| 15.5 | 96.30% | 3.70% |
| 16 | 98.10% | 1.90% |
| 16.5 | 99.80% | 0.20% |
| 17 & Up | 100.00% | 0.00% |
More Spread & Money Line Conversion Charts
How to Use the Odds Comparison Tool
Compare odds across legal US sportsbooks at ScoreandOdds.com to help you profit over the course of the NFL season. Find out how to use the odds comparison tool, along with other NFL betting tips below.
Are you in a state or traveling to a state with legal sports betting, such as New Jersey, Pennsylvania or Indiana? Our odds comparison tool is perfect for you.
Highlighting the best lines — spreads, totals and moneylines — from multiple sportsbooks across the legal US sports betting industry, you can outsource line-shopping in your betting process, saving you time and money in all of your sports betting endeavors. Simply click on spreads, totals or moneylines underneath Bet Type. The best line will be outlined in red, showing you which sportsbook you should use for each respective bet.
Additionally, all of the sportsbooks featured in our odds comparison tool will have a welcome promo, which might include free bets or deposit bonuses, for all new users. Be sure to take advantage of the offers by clicking on the bet you want and signing up!
Of course, if you are new to NFL betting, or sports betting in general, you will first need to understand what you are looking at in terms of NFL spreads, moneylines and point totals. A few complementary NFL betting tips never hurt anyone, either. Let’s get started.
Nfl Games Point Spreads Week 2
NFL Betting Glossary & Tips
Spread – The most popular way to bet on NFL football is by betting on a team against the spread (ATS). You will either wager on the favorite or the underdog to cover the spread. The Favorite is the team giving or laying points (ex: Chiefs -7). The underdog is the team getting points (ex: Colts +7).
Nfl Games Point Spread Vegas
By betting on the underdog, the team does not have to win the game for you to win your bet. You need them to lose by less than the number of points they are getting. If they win outright, you will win your bet too. Example: If you bet on the Indianapolis Colts +7, the bet wins if the Colts lose by six points or less (or win outright), you push (no money won or loss) if they lose by exactly seven points, and you lose if the Colts lose by eight or more.
NFL Betting Tip: Be aware of NFL key numbers when betting, the two most important numbers being 3 and 7. It is more common for teams to win by 3 or 7 points than any other margin of victory. The third-most common margin of victory is 10 points. Often, you will find different point spreads across different sportsbooks. If one sportsbook has a team favored by 7 points, by using our odds comparison tool, you can quickly find out if another sportsbook has the spread at 6.5 or 7.5 points. Finding the best spread is arguably the biggest factor in making you a profitable bettor over the long term.
Money Line – By betting on the moneyline, you are only wagering on what team will win or lose. Large favorites require you to risk more money than you will win (ex: Chiefs -300, requires you to risk $30 to win $10). Conversely, betting on underdogs will earn bettors more money than they risk (ex: Bengals +300, a $10 bet will earn you $30 profit).
NFL Betting Tip: While it is important to take or give points when the team you like is on the right side of key numbers, what do you do if the spread is not on the right side of the key number? Maybe you love an underdog and even think they have a chance to upset the favorite but the spread is +2, not quite reaching that key number of 3. The moneyline might be more enticing here. Some historical data shows that break-even percentages on moneyline underdogs are better than that on moneyline favorites
Total (Over/Under) – When you bet on the point total, you’re betting on the total number of points scored by both teams. So if a game has a total (or Over/Under) of 49 points before kickoff, you can bet on Over or Under 49 total combined points between the two teams for the entire game. Points scored in overtime are included. There are also point totals for quarters and halves.
NFL Betting Tip: Try to spot teams who have changed things up, whether by adding a key player in the NFL free agency or identifying a generational talentbefore others do, such as Patrick Mahomes. During the 2018-19 season, in Mahomes’ first year as a starter, the Kansas City Chiefs went Over their respective point totals in each of their first three games. By the end of the season, Chiefs Over/Under record was 10-5-1.
Vigorish (vig) or Juice – The vig or juice is the cut sportsbooks take from bettors to place their bets. This is the house edge. Sportsbooks typically have a vig of -110 on both sides of a bet, meaning you have to risk $11 for every $10 you want to win. Taking into account the vigorish, you need to win not half of your bets but at least 52.4% to break even.
NFL Betting Tip: While -110 is most common, some sportsbooks are nicer than others when it comes to vigorish. You will want to use SAO’s odds tool to find which sportsbooks are charging the least amount for your NFL picks.
Other NFL betting Terms
Parlay – A parlay involves two or more picks, all of which have to win for your parlay to pay out. You have a three-team parlay, and two of your picks win but the last game loses? Tough luck, you lose the entire bet. Parlays are attractive to bettors because of their large payouts. Two-team parlays traditionally pay 2.6-to-1, three-team parlays pay 6-to-1, four-team parlays pay 10-to-1, etc. Though we refer to these as “two-team parlays,” parlays can consist of picks on the point totals and sometimes even props. Use our parlay calculator for your convenience.
Nfl Games & Point Spreads This Week
NFL Betting Tip: Remember, NFL lines are extremely efficient. In fact, the NFL is arguably the toughest sport to beat over the long haul. Parlays require perfection, making it even more difficult for you to win on Sunday.
Teasers – Like a parlay, teasers require more than one pick, and all picks in your teaser must hit. NFL teasers are a popular way of moving multiple point spreads (or totals) to bettors’ advantage. Since the points are adjusted in the bettor’s favor, teasers do not have as large of payouts as parlays
Nfl Games Point Spread
NFL Betting Tip: Generally speaking, teasing football point totals does not raise your win rate enough to make teasing advantageous. This is especially true in college football, but even in the NFL, it is much sharper to focus on teasers that move point spreads through key numbers like 3 and 7.
Live Betting – Live betting occurs after a game starts. Did you sleep in or forget to place a bet, missing the kickoff of an NFL game you wanted to bet on? Most US sportsbooks will have live lines available for you to bet on while the game is still in progress.
NFL Betting Tip: Live lines are not as efficient as closing lines in sports betting. Watch games closely, take in the extra information available, and use live lines to your advantage, especially if you notice something that you believe sportsbooks’ live algorithms are not accounting for.